The bear market may have been grueling but bitcoin rushed back to record highs far quicker than previous cycles
It took bitcoin less than 850 days to reclaim its $69,000 all-time high set in November 2021.
That’s faster than the previous two cycles, a period of time spanning nearly a decade, from 2013 to 2021.
Bitcoin needed eight more months to break its near-$20,000 record notched in late 2017. The top crypto had tanked 85% in the months following that all-time high, reaching as low as $3,135 by the end of the following year.
Bitcoin (BTC) went on to add more than six multiples to its price over the next 24 months and blew past $20,000 in December 2020, taking back its price record almost three years after the fact.
Bitcoin hit $69,000 in the following November before slowly bleeding out all over again. It was the longest crypto winter on record by at least one metric, earmarked by FTX and Terra debacles, as well as a string of high-profile bankruptcies for hedge funds, crypto lenders and miners.
The trough between peaks stretched even longer in the previous cycle. Bitcoin topped out at $1,240 in Nov. 2013 and wouldn’t return to that price point for 1,200 days, in April 2017 — another grueling bear market revived by mania around Ethereum-powered initial coin offerings.
Bitcoin’s most recent all-time high is its fastest yet, not counting the 630-odd days it took to re-capture its $39.91 peak set in June 2011.
Any action before that could reasonably be considered price discovery. Bitcoin at that point had only been a tradable asset for a year and a half, after all.
The drawdowns have stayed practically the same over the years: about 80%, with the previous three cycles bottoming out around one year after each peak.
For what it’s worth, it took bitcoin between 240 days and 345 days (eight months to a year) to hit all-time high after reclaiming each peak stretching back to 2013.
If fractals are indeed a real thing in technical analysis for bitcoin (the jury is still out), that would mean BTC is on track to top out somewhere between November this year and March 2025, if it hasn’t already.
Although, we already know returns have shrunk considerably every cycle. At least they’re getting shorter.
Source: blockworks.co